Reading Attrition Before It Happens

By the time someone resigns, the decision was usually made weeks earlier. The signals were present in data the company already had and was not looking at.

Patterns, not individual events

One late arrival means nothing. A steady change from an established pattern means something: leave taken in single days rather than blocks, a drop in optional participation, declining internal messages, or systematically leaving earlier than a long-standing habit.

The structural signals are stronger

Time since last promotion or salary revision, time under the same manager, and being the only person in a role are among the strongest predictors in most organisations. So is a manager whose team attrition is above average, which is a signal about the manager rather than the employees.

Use it to have a conversation, not to build a watchlist

The purpose is to prompt an honest discussion about career direction while there is still something to discuss. Used as surveillance, or shared with managers as a risk score, it damages exactly the trust it is meant to protect.

Review the signals quarterly at team level rather than continuously at individual level. The pattern that matters is usually about a role or a manager, not a person.